While finishing second would secure a play-off, Northern Ireland could still have a shot at reaching the World Cup even if they finish outside the top two thanks to their Nations League group win last year.
The top four Nations League winners who do not finish in the top two in their World Cup qualifying group will earn a play-off place.
Second place is still up for grabs, but let’s talk the hypothetical worst-case scenario and Northern Ireland finish outside of the top two come the end of Group A in November.
In terms of ranking, Northern Ireland finished 12th out of the 14 group winners in the Nations League, which means they need eight of the 11 teams above them to qualify or have already booked a play-off spot.
While eyes have been on all groups throughout the campaign, ultimately there is only one situation that Northern Ireland need to keep an eye on.
If the Czech Republic beat minnows Gibraltar on Monday, 17 November – the same time NI take on Luxembourg in their final qualifier – then O’Neill’s side will be guaranteed a play-off no matter what happens.
In fact, if Croatia defeat the Faroe Islands on Friday, who had been pushing for second, then the Czechs do not even need to kick a ball to guarantee a top two finish.
You would expect Germany to finish in the top two, and if they don’t then NI would be the team to benefit in Group A.
England confirmed their qualification for next summer’s tournament with a 5-0 win against Latvia.
Spain, Portugal and Norway are all assured of a top-two finish in their respective groups, while France require just one point from their final two matches.
At least one of North Macedonia or Wales, who are currently battling with Belgium for qualification, will finish in the top two in Group J and will be the seventh of eight teams that Northern Ireland need to reach the play-offs.
So that leaves the Czech Republic in Group L, who should have enough to beat Gibraltar despite a late charge for second by the Faroe Islands.
Sweden and Romania, along with the team that misses out in Group J, will be the other teams to benefit from their Nations League group wins.
